Montenegro: 100 years of war
by Ahmad Alatiyat (2024)
Every country has a role. Large powerful nations are dominating the world today. However, even in places that seem insignificant, there always could be an interesting level of unique history within that nation’s boundaries. With this in mind, let's look into the Balkans, where a seemingly fragile, unstable nation awaits us.
Montenegro is a small country located in the southwestern area of the Balkans. It has conquered, it has been conquered and has been a relatively quiet nation for the duration of its history. However, every nation has a story to tell, so I would like to discover that history as I look closer into this small Balkan nation.
Complexity Theory:
Complexity theory, in my opinion, has many different theories mashed up into it. The idea of complexity theory is that you cannot predict an outcome that has too many ideas in play. For example, you can’t 100% predict who will win in a basketball game, as you don’t know the specific details of every single player, how each of their minds works, and how stats might vary based on their practice. You can make an inference, and educated guess, based on the information you already have, but this is still not a 100% outcome.
How it applies to history, though, is very important. For example, there were many situations in which a nation would believe that they would be the victors based on only an inference. Inference might mean it is the most likely possibility, however, it does not mean it is a 100% certainty. The Nazis in WWII were a great example of overconfidence leading to downfall.
For Montenegro, throughout its history, it will demonstrate how complexity theory applies to it.
Montenegro:
Montenegro is located in the Balkans, with its capital being Podgorica. The Balkans are known for their conflicting interests and the split demographics. However, Montenegro is one of the only nations that breaks this cycle as it is relatively neutral. Its religious demographic is mainly Orthodox Christianity, however, 20% of the population is still Muslim.
Montenegro, while being made up of mostly Montenegrens, has a few other minorities. There is a large concentration of Serbians in the north. Most of the Muslims in this nation come for the Albanians. However, there is also a small minority of Bosnians living in Montenegro. These are only on the borders, and most Montenegrin live in the center of the nation.
It had a relatively bumpy history, with most of it being under other empires. There was a long period that Montenegro was under the Ottoman Empire. However, after a long movement, Montenegro gained independence in 1878. Montenegro celebrates its independence every year. However, this independence wouldn’t last for much longer.
WW1 Involvement:
Montenegro had many issues going into the First World War. These issues were both political and economic. It had to deal with 2 major wars, the 1st and 2nd Balkan Wars. Nonetheless, it still jumped into WW1 with no preparation at all. This was the setup for their downfall.
Montenegro was just one of the many minor powers that fought during The Great War. They were close allies of Serbia and Russia due to their Slavic ties. That is why when Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia on July 28, 1914, Montenegro wouldn’t let that go by them that easily. In less than 1 month, on August 7, 1914, Montenegro declared war on Austria-Hungary. It followed with a declaration of war on Germany on August 9.
Montenegro, unfortunately, isn’t a strong military power. That is why when Austria-Hungary launched its offensive in Serbia, it didn’t care about Montenegro too much, only sending a small force there in October 1915. Serbia, while being one of the stronger Balkan powers, was still a weak nation at the time. It didn’t take long for Austria to defeat their forces. With Serbia all but defeated, and Russia preoccupied with Germany, Montenegro was left all alone to fend for themselves.
With the last goal for Austria-Hungary in the Balkans Montenegro, it could now direct all of its power to the small Balkan nation. On the 8th of January, 1916, a 500-gun barrage started the final offensive against Montenegro. In the attack were 45,000 Austrian troops, 5,000 Bosnian Muslims, and 3,000 ethnic Italians. All these troops overwhelmed the Montenegrin forces and in just 48 hours, drove them out of their fortress in Mount Lovcen. Their capital, Cetinje, fell on the 11th of January, and they surrendered 6 days later.
Over 2 years later, in September of 1918, Montenegro came to take its country back from the Austro-Hungarians. They were just some of the members of the “Yugoslav Division”, whose main goal was to take back its self-determination from Austria-Hungary. With Austria-Hungary already on the decline, and all of the Slavic nations on the offensive, they were effectively pushed out of the Balkans. Over 3,000 Montenegrins died fighting for their homeland. It may not seem like much, however, 3,000 people dead is still nothing to sneeze at.
WW2 Involvement:
Montenegro’s involvement in World War II was very insignificant, It did not even declare any war. Italy invaded Montenegro when it invaded Albania in 1941. Then from 1941-1944, it was under Italian occupation. After Italy surrendered to the Allies, the occupation of Montenegro was transferred to Germany. From 1944 until Germany’s surrender, Montenegro was occupied by the German army.
Cold War Involvement:
Montenegro didn’t have much involvement in the Cold War. At the time, Montenegro had united with Serbia, Bosnia, Croatia, Slovenia, and Macedonia to form Yugoslavia. Yugoslavia then became a Soviet Puppet. Yugoslavia, and therefore Montenegro was stuck inside the Soviet Union’s “Iron Curtain”.
When the Soviet Union fell, so came the fall of Yugoslavia. From 1990-1993, each nation broke away from Yugoslavia. First came Croatia. The second to leave was Slovenia. Finally, Bosnia left with a referendum, which left only Montenegro and Serbia.
War on Terror Involvement:
Montenegro had no involvement in the war on terror. However, there was an issue going into the 2000s. Montenegro slowly felt more and more isolated and not recognized as a real nation. Coincidentally, Serbia felt the same.
That is why on June 3rd, 2006, Montenegro and Serbia both declared independence, ending the remnants of Yugoslavia.
The war on terror still did affect Montenegro, even though Montenegro had near to no involvement in it. The populace was very afraid about the Middle East being right next door. The Montenegrin people were worried about a terrorist attack on Montenegro. While this was unlikely, Montenegro still ended up changing its regulations to match the people’s demands.
Montenegro Military Capabilties:
Montenegro ranks 129 out of the 145 countries eligible for Global Firepower review. This shows that right now its military is weak. It has a 2.911 score on the power index with a 0.0000 being exceptional. For reference, the USA ranks 0.0699 on the index. Montenegro is also an active member of NATO.
WWIII Involvement:
Now, we shall take all of the events that we have gone over, and compile a likely WWII scenario for Montenegro. Keep in mind this is only an inference, so while I believe this is the most likely scenario, due to the complexity scenario, it is not a 100% prediction.
First, we should find where this will start. The main 2 options are Ukraine and Russia, or Israel and Palestine. As they both can be equally as likely, I decided we should go with both. Instead of de-escalating tensions, Iran declares all-out war on Israel after the attack on the embassy with Syria and Lebanon. The USA, protecting Israel, joins the war on Israel’s side. From there, it gets worse. We would see nations declare war, like Yemen, and nations call neutrality, like Egypt. I would say Russia wouldn’t join at that moment, but it would join through Ukraine. Maybe some missile hits Poland or Germany, which activates Article 5. This would bring most of the Northern Hemisphere into the war, along with China and most of East Asia.
Now considering the topic of Montenegro, it is enrolled in NATO, so it will be fighting on the USA’s side. Its location in the Balkans is very safe, other than Serbia, so at the beginning of the war, all of the NATO nations in the Balkans would converge on Serbia. This would most likely end in a short defeat for Serbia.
Then, Montenegro would send out troops to other areas, as there were no more issues on their side. The main candidates for Montenegro’s troops are the Ukrainian front and the Turkish front. The Ukrainian front is the border between Ukraine and Russia. The Turkish front is the border between Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. If I were to estimate the casualties, Montenegro would most likely have around 10,000-30,000 casualties.
However, if WWIII turns out to be a nuclear war, then it’s a much different story. This development would lead to Montenegro losing most of its population. Though, it wouldn’t be hit by nukes immediately. It would just feel the radiation coming in from Italy and Germany, much bigger targets for Russian nukes. In the end, a WWIII scenario would lead to many deaths that could affect the future of the world for the worse.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, Montenegro has done much to affect the world today. From ancient times to 2024, Montenegro has had many changes in independence and occupation. It started independent, then was conquered by the Ottomans. It broke free from the Ottomans, establishing the Kingdom of Montenegro. After the establishment of Montenegro as an independent nation, it got into 2 Balkan wars.
Being shattered politically and economically, it jumped into WWI unprepared. It struggled against the unorganized, yet powerful Austria-Hungary. However, when Serbia fell, so did Montenegro. When the Allies started to push back the Central Powers, Montenegro, and other groups saw this as their time to strike. They would get together and fight back against Austrian rule.
After WW1, Yugoslavia was created. It might have seemed like a good idea at first, but it was a very unstable nation. WWII was just spent with Yugoslavia bouncing from nation to nation, occupied the whole way through.
During the Cold War, Yugoslavia was a 2nd world nation. That meant Yugoslavia was communist. It was a part of the Soviet Iron Curtain placed in Europe. However, Yugoslavia wasn’t as controlled as the rest of the Iron Curtain, because it was not in the Warsaw Pact. Eventually, the Soviets fell, and with it, the fragile balance that held up Yugoslavia. Each nation left one by one, leaving just Montenegro and Serbia, which Montenegro got to leave shortly after.
This essay made me value each small country and the delicate history that surrounds it. Even though Montenegro, by all means, didn’t do much, it still has enough history for 10 pages of information. I hope the next time I look into events, I don’t just take the broad strokes. It is my dearest recommendation that you should look into a small nation, one that seems insignificant at first. I’m sure you’ll find a bountiful load of history behind it.
References:
Britannica Editors. (2008). Britannica “History of Montenegro.” https://www.britannica.com/place/Montenegro/History
Editors of Eurydice. (2024). European Commision “Montenegro: Demographic Situation” https://eurydice.eacea.ec.europa.eu/national-education-systems/montenegro/population-demographic-situation-languages-and-religions
Editors of State.gov. (2018). US Deparment of State “2018 Report on International Religious Freedom” https://www.state.gov/reports/2018-report-on-international-religious-freedom/montenegro/#:~:text=Religious%20Demography,-The%20U.S.%20government&text=Local%20media%20estimate%20the%20SOC,Catholic%2C%20and%201.2%20percent%20atheist.
Matt Simpson. (2009). Firstworldwar “The Minor Powers during WWI - Montenegro” https://www.firstworldwar.com/features/minorpowers_montenegro.htm
Editors of GFP. (2024). Global Fire Power “2024 Montenegro Military Strength”
https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=montenegro
Ne.V.. (2023). Vijesti “Global Firepower: The US military is the most powerful in the world. See where Montenegro is
Editors of Gov.uk. (2009). GOV.UK “Foreign Travel Advice: Montenegro”
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/montenegro/safety-and-security